H-1B lottery odds: how selection works

LiveRec EditorialUpdated

US federal rules as of October 30, 2026. Sources re-checked against official pages on October 30, 2026. Where a figure could not be confirmed, this page links the official source instead of stating it.

Your H-1B lottery odds are not a fixed percentage. They depend on how many registrations USCIS receives, how many it needs, and, starting with the FY2027 season, your registration's wage level. USCIS publishes the counts after each season. This page explains the method and links to the data.

How does selection work?

If USCIS receives more eligible registrations than it needs to reach the cap, it selects among them. Starting with the FY2027 season, selection is weighted by wage level: a registration at the highest wage level is entered into the pool more times than one at the lowest.

What are the numbers?

USCIS says each registration costs $215 and, starting with FY2027, enters the selection pool according to its OEWS wage level: Level IV four times, Level III three times, Level II twice and Level I once. Each unique beneficiary counts only once toward the numerical projections. The USCIS cap season page, checked 2026-10-30, does not list registration and selection totals, so LiveRec states none. Look for the counts on the USCIS cap season page.

How do I improve my odds?

You cannot buy selection. What you can control: a job that genuinely meets the specialty-occupation test, an employer willing to register you, and the wage level the employer attests. Anyone who sells "guaranteed selection" is not offering a lawful service. See avoiding immigration scams.

Can I register more than once?

Only the employer registers, and USCIS counts each unique beneficiary only once toward its numerical projections. Ask the employer's attorney how duplicate registrations are treated; see the USCIS cap season page.

What if I am not selected?

Options include cap-exempt employers (guide), other categories such as O-1, L-1, TN or E-3 if you qualify, or registering again next season.

What are the cap numbers behind the odds?

USCIS says Congress set the regular cap at 65,000 each fiscal year, with up to 6,800 of those set aside for the H-1B1 program for Chile and Singapore. Unused H-1B1 visas become available to the next year's regular cap. An additional 20,000 petitions filed for people with a master's degree or higher from a US institution of higher education are exempt from the regular cap. These are the supply numbers, not your odds.

How does the process run?

  1. The employer completes an electronic registration for each prospective beneficiary.
  2. USCIS runs the selection. Under the FY 2027 weighted process, each registration enters the pool by wage level: level IV four times, level III three times, level II twice, level I once. If registrations do not exceed what USCIS projects it needs, random selection is not required.
  3. Selected registrants receive a selection notice in their account.
  4. The employer may file a cap-subject petition from April 1 for selected registrations. USCIS says the petition must be filed no more than 6 months before the requested start date, with a start date of October 1 or later.
  5. The petition must include the selection notice and evidence supporting the wage level chosen at registration.

What does the petition have to match?

USCIS says the petition must carry the same identifying and position information as the selected registration, including the SOC code and the beneficiary's passport or travel document used at registration. A mismatch is a reason to ask the employer's attorney before filing.

Common mistakes

  • Treating a published percentage from a blog as your personal odds.
  • Choosing a wage level the job does not support. The petition needs evidence for it.
  • Letting a passport expire between registration and filing without telling the attorney.
  • Paying a middleman for selection. USCIS says only the employer registers, and each beneficiary counts once.

FAQ

Is the H-1B really a lottery? Historically selection was random among eligible registrations. From FY2027 it is weighted by wage level, per USCIS.

When is the next registration? USCIS announces it each year. USCIS says registration is typically in March; no next-season dates were listed on its cap season page on 30 Oct 2026.

Does LiveRec know my odds? No. We have no basis for an individual estimate, and we do not publish one.

Is the weighted lottery fair to entry-level workers? USCIS says the weighted process favors higher skilled and higher paid workers while keeping the opportunity for employers to secure H-1B workers at all wage levels.

Does a master's degree from India count for the extra 20,000? USCIS says it is for degrees from a US institution of higher education.

Where are the numbers for past seasons? On the USCIS H-1B cap season and H-1B electronic registration pages. LiveRec does not copy them.

Next step: Read the full H-1B guide.

Sources

This is general information, not legal, tax or immigration advice. Rules change and your situation may differ. Consult a licensed attorney or qualified adviser.